Choma, Ernani

Vehicle electrification has been recognized for its potential to reduce emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases in China. Several studies have estimated how national-level policies of electric vehicle (EV) adoption might bring very large environmental and public health benefits from improved air quality to China. However, large-scale adoption is very costly, some regions derive more benefits from large-scale EV adoption than others, and the benefits of replacing internal combustion engines in specific cities is less known. Therefore, it is important for policymakers to design incentives based on regional characteristics – especially for megacities like Shanghai – which typically suffer from worse air quality and where a larger population is exposed to emissions from vehicles. Over the past five years, Shanghai has offered substantial personal subsidies for passenger EVs to accelerate its electrification efforts. Still, it remains uncertain whether EV benefits justify the strength of incentives. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the health and climate benefits of replacing light-duty gasoline vehicles (ICEVs) with battery EVs in the city of Shanghai. We assess health impacts due to ICEV emissions of primary fine particulate matter, NOx, and volatile organic compounds, and to powerplant emissions of NOx and SO2 due to EV charging. We incorporate climate benefits from reduced greenhouse gas emissions based on existing research. We find that the benefit of replacing the average ICEV with an EV in Shanghai is US$6400 (2400-14,700), with health impacts of EVs about 20 times lower than the average ICEV. Larger benefits ensue if older ICEVs are replaced, but replacing newer China ICEVs also achieves positive health benefits. As Shanghai plans to stop providing personal subsidies for EV purchases in 2024, our results show that EVs achieve public health and climate benefits and can help inform policymaking strategies in Shanghai and other megacities.

China started to implement comprehensive measures to mitigate traffic pollution at the end of 1990s, but the comprehensive effects, especially on ambient air quality and public health, have not yet been systematically evaluated. In this study, we analyze the effects of vehicle emission control measures on ambient air pollution and associated deaths attributable to long-term exposures of fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and O₃ based on an integrated research framework that combines scenario analysis, air quality modeling, and population health risk assessment. We find that the total impact of these control measures was substantial. Vehicular emissions during 1998–2015 would have been 2–3 times as large as they actually were, had those measures not been implemented. The national population-weighted annual average concentrations of PM_2.5 and O₃ in 2015 would have been higher by 11.7 μg/m³ and 8.3 parts per billion, respectively, and the number of deaths attributable to 2015 air pollution would have been higher by 510 thousand (95% confidence interval: 360 thousand to 730 thousand) without these controls. Our analysis shows a concentration of mortality impacts in densely populated urban areas, motivating local policymakers to design stringent vehicle emission control policies. The results imply that vehicle emission control will require policy designs that are more multifaceted than traditional controls, primarily represented by the strict emission standards, with careful consideration of the challenges in coordinated mitigation of both PM_2.5 and O₃ in different regions, to sustain improvement in air quality and public health given continuing swift growth in China’s vehicle population.