专著二: 《中国更晴朗的天空》

该多元研究计划由来自哈佛大学、清华大学和南京大学的哈佛大学中国项目研究人员领衔。该研究项目运用综合跨学科模型框架,对旨在控制中国空气污染和二氧化碳排放的国家政策的经济和环境成本效益进行了评估。评估结果与政策结论详见《中国更晴朗的天空:兼顾空气质量、气候和经济目标》Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals (Nielsen and Ho 2013, MIT Press)一书。

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关于本书更多详情,请点击下方“显示更多”。也请点击下方“更多出版文献”查看哈佛中国项目赞助的所有该领域的研究出版文献。

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框架

《中国更晴朗的天空》一书中,哈佛大学中国项目的经济学家、工程师、大气学家和健康专家将之前的专著《净化空气》中阐释的经济-工程-健康研究框架同独立研发的中国GEOS-Chem大气模型相结合。这一长期的项目整合因国家排放清单分辨率的提高而成为可能。国家排放清单的研究人员最初来自清华大学,他们在哈佛大学进行博士后研究期间对排放清单进行了改良与整合,他们现在继续在中国的大学为哈佛大学中国项目的研究贡献力量。这一改良版的排放清单空间与区域分辨率使联结基于区域的经济模型和空间分辨的大气模型更为可行。点击此处查看排放清单研究详情。

这一结果让我们更深入地了解了排污控制和能源政策的大气与相关效果,这些效果对中国经济有着重大影响。这一模型整合使得研究团队能对诸如臭氧和硫酸盐之类的复杂的二次污染物对公共健康、农业生产力和经济造成的危害更好地进行量化。多学科背景的研究团队回顾了2006—2010年间的完整数据资料,运用新的综合研究框架首次完成了对两项政策的评估:

  • 每吨碳征收人民币100元的碳税(约合每吨二氧化碳4美元),因此而避免的污染和健康损害也是温室气体控制产生的协同效益;
  • 十一五规划(2006年—2010年)期间实行的大刀阔斧的硫排放控制措施,该措施对碳排放控制的效果也是当地污染控制的协同效益。

这一综合研究框架之后便被用来测评中国未来几年(2013年—2020年)各种碳税收结构,包括:

  • 各种税收标准;
  • 世界其他国家碳价格的各种设定;
  • 税收收入的各种用途,包括向顾客一次性退税、不影响税收总额的前提下降低现有税收、支持排放密集型和高竞争性行业;
  • 实行税收政策的各种时间点。

这本新书《中国更晴朗的天空》介绍了2006—2010年间和2013—2020年间的方案研究成果。哈佛大学中国项目的Chris NIELSEN和何文胜博士也在《纽约时报》周日评论专栏刊文介绍了相关研究成果。

主要政策结论

参见一下“概括介绍”。

赞助

此次复杂的合作最初由哈佛中国基金的种子资金赞助,并获得了能源基金会(中国)、哈佛大学一个专门资助学生和博士后的基金、美国国家科学基金会(ATM-063558和ATM-1019134)以及哈佛大学Weatherhead国际事务中心的大力支持。哈佛大学中国项目的经济研究部分还额外获得了来自哈佛大学经济系张茵基金的赞助。

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相关文献

Yu Zhao, Michael B. McElroy, Jia Xing, Lei Duan, Chris P Nielsen, Yu Lei, and Jiming Hao. 2011. “Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Public health, soil acidification, and global temperature.” Science of the Total Environment , 409, 24, Pp. 5177-5187. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1–7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.
Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals
2013. Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment.

China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than $4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards.

This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth.

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