经济

Jing Cao and Rong Ma. 2023. “Mitigating agricultural fires with carrot or stick? Evidence from China.” Journal of Economic Development, 165, October 2023, Pp. 103173. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper examines the effects of biomass power plants (BPPs) on farmers’ use of agricultural fires for land clearance in China from 2001 to 2019. We show that the entry of BPPs leads to a significant reduction of agricultural fires by 14%. Farmers near BPPs display stronger responses, leading to a more significant reduction in straw burning, especially during high agricultural fire seasons. The notable decline in agricultural fires is likely driven by economic incentives provided by BPPs to farmers for collecting crop straw from their land. Additionally, straw-burning bans have limited effectiveness in reducing total agricultural fires, but they appear to reduce straw burning during nighttime, when the monitoring of agricultural fires is easier. We also provide evidence that local air quality has markedly improved, resulting in substantial health benefits that surpass the social benefits of reducing carbon emissions.
Jing Cao, Mun Ho, and Qingfeng Liu. 2023. “Analyzing multi-greenhouse gas mitigation of China using a general equilibrium model.” Environmental Research Letters, 18, 2, Pp. 025001. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Climate actions have focused on CO2 mitigation and only some studies of China consider non-CO2 greenhouse gases (GHGs), which account for nearly 18% of gross GHG emissions. The economy-wide impact of mitigation covering CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs in China, has not been comprehensively studied and we develop a multi-sector dynamic model to compare the impact of CO2-only mitigation with a multi-GHG mitigation policy that also price non-CO2 GHGs. We find that the multi-GHG approach significantly reduces the marginal abatement cost and economic loss to reach the same level of GHG emissions (measures as 100 year global warming potential) compared to a CO2-only scenario. By 2060, multi-gas mitigation can reduce the tax rate by 15.44% and improve real gross domestic product (GDP) by 0.41%. The aggregate gain brought by multi-GHG mitigation are robust to various pathways and but vary across periods and sectors.
Zhenyu Zhuo, Ershun Du, Ning Zhang, Chris Nielsen, Xi Lu, Jinyu Xiao, Jiawei Wu, and Chongqing Kang. 2022. “Cost Increase in the Electricity Supply to Achieve Carbon Neutrality in China.” Nature Communications, 13. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The Chinese government has set long-term carbon neutrality and renewable energy (RE) development goals for the power sector. Despite a precipitous decline in the costs of RE technologies, the external costs of renewable intermittency and the massive investments in new RE capacities would increase electricity costs. Here, we develop a power system expansion model to comprehensively evaluate changes in the electricity supply costs over a 30-year transition to carbon neutrality. RE supply curves, operating security constraints, and the characteristics of various generation units are modelled in detail to assess the cost variations accurately. According to our results, approximately 5.8 TW of wind and solar photovoltaic capacity would be required to achieve carbon neutrality in the power system by 2050. The electricity supply costs would increase by 9.6 CNY¢/kWh. The major cost shift would result from the substantial investments in RE capacities, flexible generation resources, and network expansion.

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