Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals

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中国国家电网公司前董事长刘振亚就全球能源互联网在哈佛大学发表公开演讲

April 17, 2018

2018年4月17日,中国国家电网公司(SGCC)前董事长、现全球能源互联网发展合作组织(GEIDCO)主席刘振亚先生在哈佛大学法学院发表题为“能源创新之道:从特高压电网到全球能源互联网”的公开演讲。演讲探讨了建立全球智能电网的需求与潜力,通过全球能源互联网,用可再生资源生产的能源能够以更低的成本进入千家万户。本次活动由哈佛大学中国能源、经济与环境项目,哈佛法学院东亚法律研究项目,哈佛John A. Paulson工程与应用科学学院,以及哈佛环球学院联合举办。点击此处阅读有关报道。

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同解振华特别代表和李干杰部长进行高层次会晤

August 30, 2017

2017年8月4日,中国气候变化事务特别代表解振华主任在其北京的办公室举行了研究和政策咨询会,会晤哈佛大学中国项目的Mike McElroy和Steve Wofsy教授、项目执行总监Chris Nielsen、前哈佛大学中国项目学者张红军博士(霍兰德奈特律师事务所),以及鲁玺教授(清华大学)。议题包括:中美处理气候问题的现状以及地区政府在气候问题治理中日益重要的作用;中国不同地区碳排放控制能力的差异;碳市场与碳税收政策各自的优势和混合碳定价政策的前景;以及尝试用地球工程来解决气候问题所带来的高风险。... Read more about 同解振华特别代表和李干杰部长进行高层次会晤

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《经济学人》、《中国日报》报道哈佛大学中国项目的研究;《纽约时报》就同一主题刊登专栏文章

March 14, 2014

《中国日报》对哈佛大学中国项目的碳定价和空气污染研究进行报道;《经济学人》杂志引述我们项目专著《中国更晴朗的天空》(Clearer Skies Over China) 中关于中国二氧化硫排放控制的有效性的研究结论,同时项目研究人员Chris Nielsen先生与何文胜博士也在《纽约时报》就同一主题撰写专栏文章。
... Read more about 《经济学人》、《中国日报》报道哈佛大学中国项目的研究;《纽约时报》就同一主题刊登专栏文章

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《财富》杂志刊登何博士和Nielsen总监有关中国空气污染困境的专栏文章

January 10, 2017

哈佛大学中国项目执行总监Chris Nielsen先生与项目经济学家何文胜博士在《财富》杂志(包括《财富》杂志中文版)发表专栏文章,阐述了中国处于红色警报级别的空气污染情况之所以如此难以遏制,其背后被低估了的原因是什么。这些因素各种各样,与大气化学、气象、经济、政治等方面都有关。... Read more about 《财富》杂志刊登何博士和Nielsen总监有关中国空气污染困境的专栏文章

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《华尔街日报》、《哈佛志》、《气候发展》和《南华早报》报道哈佛大学中国项目关于空气污染和碳税的研究

December 17, 2013

《华尔街日报》《气候发展》《哈佛志》《南华早报》援引了Chris Nielsen总监、何文胜博士和曹静教授关于碳税的看法,三人也指出了中国在能源与环境方面的优势与不足,相关观点引述自哈佛大学中国项目的新书《中国更晴朗的天空》(Clearer Skies Over China)。
... Read more about 《华尔街日报》、《哈佛志》、《气候发展》和《南华早报》报道哈佛大学中国项目关于空气污染和碳税的研究

Nielsen总监在《环境与健康展望》期刊表示中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)变化趋势令人鼓舞

Nielsen总监在《环境与健康展望》期刊表示中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)变化趋势令人鼓舞

February 29, 2016

《环境与健康展望》期刊 (Environmental Health Perspectives)援引哈佛大学中国项目执行总监Chris Nielsen先生的观点:与大众普遍的认知相反,根据卫星观测,自2007年开始,中国大部分地区细颗粒物(PM2.5)浓度的年平均值已经下降。... Read more about Nielsen总监在《环境与健康展望》期刊表示中国细颗粒物(PM2.5)变化趋势令人鼓舞

Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals
2013. Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment.

China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than $4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards.

This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth.

Yu Zhao, Michael B. McElroy, Jia Xing, Lei Duan, Chris P Nielsen, Yu Lei, and Jiming Hao. 2011. “Multiple effects and uncertainties of emission control policies in China: Public health, soil acidification, and global temperature.” Science of the Total Environment , 409, 24, Pp. 5177-5187. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Policies to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China may have conflicting impacts on public health, soil acidification, and climate. Two scenarios for 2020, a base case without anticipated control measures and a more realistic case including such controls, are evaluated to quantify the effects of the policies on emissions and resulting environmental outcomes. Large benefits to public health can be expected from the controls, attributed mainly to reduced emissions of primary PM and gaseous PM precursors, and thus lower ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Approximately 4% of all-cause mortality in the country can be avoided (95% confidence interval: 1–7%), particularly in eastern and north-central China, regions with large population densities and high levels of PM2.5. Surface ozone levels, however, are estimated to increase in parts of those regions, despite NOX reductions. This implies VOC-limited conditions. Even with significant reduction of SO2 and NOX emissions, the controls will not significantly mitigate risks of soil acidification, judged by the exceedance levels of critical load (CL). This is due to the decrease in primary PM emissions, with the consequent reduction in deposition of alkaline base cations. Compared to 2005, even larger CL exceedances are found for both scenarios in 2020, implying that PM control may negate any recovery from soil acidification due to SO2 reductions. Noting large uncertainties, current polices to control emissions of criteria pollutants in China will not reduce climate warming, since controlling SO2 emissions also reduces reflective secondary aerosols. Black carbon emission is an important source of uncertainty concerning the effects of Chinese control policies on global temperature change. Given these conflicts, greater consideration should be paid to reconciling varied environmental objectives, and emission control strategies should target not only criteria pollutants but also species such as VOCs and CO2.
Xiaoqi Guo and James K Hammitt. 2009. “Compensating wage differentials with unemployment: Evidence from China.” Environmental and Resource Economics, 42, 2, Pp. 187-209. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate the economic value of mortality risk in China using the compensating-wage-differential method. We find a positive and statistically significant correlation between wages and occupational fatality risk. The estimated effect is largest for unskilled workers. Unemployment reduces compensation for risk, which suggests that some of the assumptions under which compensating wage differentials can be interpreted as measures of workers’ preferences for risk and income are invalid when unemployment is high. Workers may be unwilling to quit high-risk jobs when alternative employment is difficult to obtain, violating the assumption of perfect mobility, or some workers (e.g., new migrants) may be poorly informed about between-job differences in risk, violating the assumption of perfect information. These factors suggest our estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) in China, which range from approximately US$30,000 to US$100,000, may be biased downward. Alternative estimates adjust for heterogeneity of risk within industry by assuming that risk is concentrated among low-skill workers. These estimates, which are likely to be biased downward, range from US$7,000 to US$20,000.

This study developed a new approach to the valuation of health risk in China, for monetizing health damages of environmental degradation.

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