Urban Transportation, Land Use, Air Quality, and Health

Haikun Wang, Xi Lu, Yu Deng, Yaoguang Sun, Chris P. Nielsen, Yifan Liu, Ge Zhu, Maoliang Bu, Jun Bi, and Michael B. McElroy. 2019. “China’s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from diverse characteristics and growth of cities.” Nature Sustainability. Publisher's VersionAbstract
China pledges to peak CO2 emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 °C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO2 emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000–2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO2 emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China’s historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13–16 GtCO2 yr−1 between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5–10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location.
Sumeeta Srinivasan, Chenghe Guan, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Built environment, income and travel behavior: Change in the city of Chengdu 2005-2016.” International Journal of Sustainable Transportation. Publisher's VersionAbstract
In this paper, we look at differences in travel behavior and location characteristics across income in Chengdu, China at two points of time, 2005 and 2016, using household travel surveys. Specifically, we compare changes over time for different income groups for Chengdu in 2005 and 2016. We find that walking or biking remains the most common mode for all income groups but higher-income households appear to have more choices depending on the proximity of their neighborhood to downtown. We also find that both average local and average regional access have worsened since 2005. Furthermore, it appears that there is less economic diversity within neighborhoods in 2016 when compared to 2005, with more locations appearing to have 40% or more of low-, middle-, or high-income households than in the past. Finally, we find that low-income households and older trip makers are more likely to walk or bike and that high-income households are the most likely to own cars and use motorized modes. Built environment characteristics like mixed land use appear to significantly reduce travel time in 2016 but do not result in higher non-motorized transport mode share. We contribute to existing literature by evaluating changes in the relationship of built environment and travel behavior during a period of rapid urbanization and economic growth in a Chinese city.
James K. Hammitt, Fangli Geng, Xiaoqi Guo, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Valuing Mortality Risk in China: Comparing Stated-Preference Estimates from 2005 and 2016.” Journal of Risk & Uncertainty, 58, 2-3, Pp. 167–186. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate the marginal rate of substitution of income for reduction in current annual mortality risk (the “value per statistical life” or VSL) using stated-preference surveys administered to independent samples of the general population of Chengdu, China in 2005 and 2016. We evaluate the quality of estimates by the theoretical criteria that willingness to pay (WTP) for risk reduction should be strictly positive and nearly proportional to the magnitude of the risk reduction (evaluated by comparing answers between respondents) and test the effect of excluding respondents whose answers violate these criteria. For subsamples of respondents that satisfy the criteria, point estimates of the sensitivity of WTP to risk reduction are consistent with theory and yield estimates of VSL that are two to three times larger than estimated using the full samples. Between 2005 and 2016, estimated VSL increased sharply, from about 22,000 USD in 2005 to 550,000 USD in 2016. Income also increased substantially over this period. Attributing the change in VSL solely to the change in real income implies an income elasticity of about 3.0. Our results suggest that estimates of VSL from stated-preference studies in which WTP is not close to proportionate to the stated risk reduction may be biased downward by a factor of two or more, and that VSL is likely to grow rapidly in a population with strong economic growth, which implies that environmental-health, safety, and other policies should become increasingly protective.
2019 Mar 07

China and Asia in a Changing Climate: Natural Science for the Non-Scientist

12:15pm to 1:45pm

Location: 

CGIS South S020, Belfer Case Study Room, 1730 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA

 

 

Panelists:

  • Professor John Holdren, Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy, Harvard Kennedy School (HKS) and Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Co-Director of Science, Technology, and Public Policy Program, HKS; former Science Advisor to President Barack Obama and former Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy
  • Professor Peter Huybers, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, and Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences
  • Professor Elsie Sunderland, Gordon McKay Professor of Environmental Chemistry, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
  • Professor Steve Wofsy, Abbott Lawrence Rotch Professor of Atmospheric and Environmental Science, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, and Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences

Chair: Professor Mike McElroy, Gilbert Butler Professor of Environmental Studies, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, and Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences; Chair, Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment... Read more about China and Asia in a Changing Climate: Natural Science for the Non-Scientist

Chenghe Guan, Sumeeta Srinivasan, and Chris P. Nielsen. 2019. “Does neighborhood form influence low-carbon transportation in China?” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 67, Pp. 406-420. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Developing less auto-dependent urban forms and promoting low-carbon transportation (LCT) are challenges facing our cities. Previous literature has supported the association between neighborhood form and low-carbon travel behaviour. Several studies have attempted to measure neighborhood forms focusing on physical built-environment factors such as population and employment density and socio-economic conditions such as income and race. We find that these characteristics may not be sufficiently fine-grained to differentiate between neighborhoods in Chinese cities. This research assesses characteristics of neighborhood spatial configuration that may influence the choice of LCT modes in the context of dense Chinese cities. Urban-form data from 40 neighborhoods in Chengdu, China, along with a travel behaviour survey of households conducted in 2016, were used to generate several measures of land use diversity and accessibility for each neighborhood. We use principle component analysis (PCA) to group these variables into dimensions that could be used to classify the neighborhoods. We then estimate regression models of low-carbon mode choices such as walking, bicycling, and transit to better understand the significance of these built-environment differences at the neighbourhood level. We find that, first, members of households do choose to walk or bike or take transit to work provided there is relatively high population density and sufficient access to public transit and jobs. Second, land-use diversity alone was not found to be significant in affecting LCT mode choice. Third, the proliferation of gated communities was found to reduce overall spatial connectivity within neighborhoods and had a negative effect on choice of LCT.
Chenghe Guan, Ziming Li, Rahul Mehrotra, Michael Keith, and Abhinav Alakshendra. In Press. “Smart city interventions and green accessibility for urban migrants: Case studies of Patna and Mumbai in India.” Urban Planning International.Abstract
Post-colonial India has experienced rapid urbanization characterized by rural-urban migration and the prosperity of informal settlement in cities. However, urban planning and infrastructure development has paid little attention to the needs of walking accessibility for pedestrians, especially the urban poor and migrants. The goals of “Smart city”-oriented urban policy cover inclusiveness, accessibility, transparency, comfortable, safety, sustainable, etc. In order to find how such emerging policy intervention could help pedestrians, we illustrate non-motorized accessibility challenges and opportunities for migrants and urban poor in Patna and Mumbai through case studies at multiple scales and various aspects. We found that to fulfill the needs of pedestrians not only means providing them adequate facilities but also means embodying the idea of inclusiveness and users’ perceptions into practical methods for enhancing accessibility. Moreover, informality makes the vision of smart cities more complex in the two cities, which implies the significance to hearing the diverse grassroots opinions by applying “smart” governance concept as well as innovative technologies for collecting data of accessibility of different social groups. 
Chenghe Guan and Richard B. Peiser. 2018. “Accessibility, urban form, and property value: Toward a sustainable urban spatial structure.” Journal of Transport and Land Use, 11, 1, Pp. 1057-1080. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The effects of metro system development and urban form on housing prices highly depend on the spatial temporal conditions of urban neighborhoods. However, scholars have not yet comprehensively examined these interactions at a neighborhood-scale. This study assesses metro access, urban form, and property value at both the district- and neighborhood-level. The study area is Pudong, Shanghai, where metro system development has coincided with rapid urban growth. Two hundred and seventy-nine neighborhoods from 13 districts of Shanghai are randomly selected for the district-level investigation and 31 neighborhoods from Pudong are selected for the neighborhood-level investigation. The analysis of variance shows that metro access is more positively correlated to property price in Pudong than other districts. The Pearson correlation, principle component, and ordinary least square regression analyses show that while accessibility attributes have a positive influence on housing prices, neighborhood characteristics also exhibit a pronounced impact on property price change over time. This study extends our knowledge on how metro system development interacts with landuse efficiency and discusses planning policies that correspond to different stages of development.
Mengyao Han, Bo Zhang, Yuqing Zhang, and Chenghe Guan. 2019. “Agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions of major economies: Consumption-vs. production-based perspectives.” Journal of Cleaner Production, 210, Pp. 276-286. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Agriculture is one of the most important sectors for global anthropogenic methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. While much attention has been paid to production-side agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas (ANGHG) emissions, less is known about the emissions from the consumption-based perspective. This paper aims to explore the characteristics of agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions of global major economies by using the latest emission data from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and the recently available global multi-regional input-output model from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD). The results show that in 2014, the 42 major economies together accounted for 60.7% and 65.0% of global total direct and embodied ANGHG emissions, respectively. The consumption-based ANGHG emissions in the US, Japan, and the EU were much higher than their production-based emissions, while the converse was true for Brazil, Australia, and India. The global-average embodied ANGHG emissions per capita was 0.7 t CO2-eq, but major developing countries such as China, India, Indonesia and Mexico were all below this average value. We find that the total transfer of embodied ANGHG emissions via international trade was 622.4 Mt CO2-eq, 11.9% of the global total. China was the largest exporter of embodied ANGHG emissions, while the US was the largest importer. Most developed economies were net importers of embodied emissions. Mexico-US, China-US, China-EU, China-Japan, China-Russia, Brazil-EU, India-EU and India-US formed the main bilateral trading pairs of embodied emission flows. Examining consumption-based inventories can be useful for understanding the impacts of final demand and international trade on agricultural GHG emissions and identifying appropriate mitigation potentials along global supply chains.
2018 Dec 06

Health Benefit of On-Road Vehicular Emissions Control Program in China

3:30pm to 4:45pm

Location: 

Pierce Hall 100F, 29 Oxford St., Cambridge, MA

Speaker: WANG Haikun

WANG Haikun, Associate Professor, School of Environment, Nanjing University; Visiting Scholar Alumnus and Collaborator, Harvard-China Project

Abstract: Coming soon!

Sponsored by China Project, Harvard Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences.

 

Summer RA

哈佛中国项目组织本科生暑期赴中国参与环境问题研究

September 26, 2018

A Harvard Gazette article by Al Powell

今年暑假,哈佛中国项目安排了一批哈佛本科生赴中国高校就一系列环境问题开展研究,课题包罗万象:从臭氧污染对农作物的影响,分析家户电力需求,到研究解决地下水砷污染的方法等。

此次暑期实习由哈佛中国项目和哈佛环球学院联合赞助,从六月底至八月中旬历时一个半月,共有八名学生参加,分别去了北京的清华大学和香港的香港中文大学。哈佛中国项目主席、...

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2018 Nov 08

Urban Spatial Structure and Travel in China

12:00pm to 1:30pm

Location: 

Gund Hall Room 122, 42-48 Quincy St., Cambridge, MA

Speaker: Lingqian (Ivy) Hu

Lingqian (Ivy) Hu, Professor and Chair, Department of Urban Planning, School of Architecture and Urban Planning, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee

Abstract: This paper aims to critically review the literature on the relationship between urban structure and travel in China. The review findings are further connected with existing knowledge in this research field and with the Chinese context. Specifically, the authors conduct a...

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Meng Gao, Gufran Beig, Shaojie Song, Hongliang Zhang, Jianlin Hu, Qi Ying, Fengchao Liang, Yang Liu, Haikun Wang, Xiao Lu, Tong Zhu, Gregory Carmichael, Chris P. Nielsen, and Michael B. McElroy. 2018. “The Impact of Power Generation Emissions on Ambient PM2.5 Pollution and Human Health in China and India.” Environment International, 121, Part 1, Pp. 250-259. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Emissions from power plants in China and India contain a myriad of fine particulate matter (PM2.5, PM≤2.5 micrometers in diameter) precursors, posing significant health risks among large, densely settled populations. Studies isolating the contributions of various source classes and geographic regions are limited in China and India, but such information could be helpful for policy makers attempting to identify efficient mitigation strategies. We quantified the impact of power generation emissions on annual mean PM2.5 concentrations using the state-of-the-art atmospheric chemistry model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) in China and India. Evaluations using nationwide surface measurements show the model performs reasonably well. We calculated province-specific annual changes in mortality and life expectancy due to power generation emissions generated PM2.5 using the Integrated Exposure Response (IER) model, recently updated IER parameters from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015, population data, and the World Health Organization (WHO) life tables for China and India. We estimate that 15 million (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 10 to 21 million) years of life lost can be avoided in China each year and 11 million (95% CI: 7 to 15 million) in India by eliminating power generation emissions. Priorities in upgrading existing power generating technologies should be given to Shandong, Henan, and Sichuan provinces in China, and Uttar Pradesh state in India due to their dominant contributions to the current health risks.

 

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