Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia play an important role in the regional and global atmospheric environment. In this study we evaluated the recent emission trends of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) in East Asia, and projected their future emissions up until 2030 with six emission scenarios. The results will provide future emission projections for the modeling community of the model inter-comparison program for Asia (MICS-Asia). During 2005–2010, the emissions of SO2 and PM2.5 in East Asia decreased by 15 and 12%, respectively, mainly attributable to the large-scale deployment of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) at China's power plants, and the promotion of highly efficient PM removal technologies in China's power plants and cement industry. During this period, the emissions of NOx and NMVOC increased by 25 and 15%, driven by rapid increase in the emissions from China due to inadequate control strategies. In contrast, the NOx and NMVOC emissions in East Asia except China decreased by 13–17%, mainly due to the implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards in Japan and South Korea. Under current regulations and current levels of implementation, NOx, SO2, and NMVOC emissions in East Asia are projected to increase by about one-quarter over 2010 levels by 2030, while PM2.5 emissions are expected to decrease by 7%. Assuming enforcement of new energy-saving policies, emissions of NOx, SO2, PM2.5 and NMVOC in East Asia are expected to decrease by 28, 36, 28, and 15%, respectively, compared with the baseline case. The implementation of "progressive" end-of-pipe control measures would lead to another one-third reduction of the baseline emissions of NOx, and about one-quarter reduction of SO2, PM2.5, and NMVOC. Assuming the full application of technically feasible energy-saving policies and end-of-pipe control technologies, the emissions of NOx, SO2, and PM2.5 in East Asia would account for only about one-quarter, and NMVOC for one-third, of the levels of the baseline projection. Compared with previous projections, this study projects larger reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions by considering aggressive governmental plans and standards scheduled to be implemented in the next decade, and quantifies the significant effects of detailed progressive control measures on NMVOC emissions up until 2030.
空气污染、温室气体与气候
Emission trends and mitigation options for air pollutants in East Asia.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, Pp. 6571-6603. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2014. “
A dual strategy for controlling energy consumption and air pollution in China's metropolis of Beijing.” Energy, 81, 1 March, Pp. 294-303. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2015. “
Emissions from China: Implications for the regional and global environment.” Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University.
. 2004. “
Source apportionment of atmospheric mercury pollution in China using the GEOS-Chem model.” Environmental Pollution, 190, July, Pp. 166-175. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2014. “
Summary: Sulfur Mandates and Carbon Taxes for 2006-2010.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 59-102. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2013. “
Asian emissions of CO and NOX: Constraints from aircraft and Chinese station data.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 109, D24304. Publisher's Version
. 2004. “
Understanding China's carbon dioxide emissions from both production and consumption perspectives.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 52, Pp. 189-200. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2015. “
Primary Air Pollutant Emissions of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 161-202. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2013. “
Contributions of the Hadley and Ferrel circulations to the energetics of the atmosphere over the past 32 years.” Journal of Climate, 27, 7, Pp. 2656–2666. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2014. “
Patterns in atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols in China: Emission estimates and observed concentrations.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, Pp. 8657–8678. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2015. “
An Anthropogenic Emission Inventory of Primary Air Pollutants in China for 2005 and 2010.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 225-261. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2013. “
The effects of energy paths and emission controls and standards on future trends in China's emissions of primary air pollutants.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, Pp. 8849-8868. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2014. “
Evaluating Power Plant Emissions in China: Human Exposure and Valuation.” Harvard School of Public Health.
. 2002. “
Estimating the distribution of terrestrial CO2 sources and sinks from atmospheric measurements: Sensitivity to configuration of the observation network.” Journal of Geophysical Research, 108, D15. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2003. “
Benefits to Human Health and Agricultural Productivity of Reduced Air Pollution.” In Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Quality, Climate, and Economic Goals, Pp. 291-328. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract
. 2013. “