空气污染、温室气体与气候

An interdisciplinary, quantitative assessment of the health and economic costs of air pollution in China, and of market-based policies to build environmental protection into economic development.

Intake fractions, an emissions-intake relationship for primary pollutants, are defined and are estimated in order to make simple estimates of health damages from air pollution. The sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and total suspended particles (TSP) intake fractions for five cities of China are estimated for the four main polluting industries—electric power generation, mineral (mostly cement) products industry, chemical process industry and metallurgical industry (mainly iron and steel smelting). The Industrial Source Complex Long Term (ISTLT3) model is used to simulate the spatial distribution of incremental ambient concentrations due to emissions from a large sample of site-specific sources. Detailed population distribution information is used for each city. The average intake fractions within 50 km of these sources are 4.4 × 10^- 6 for TSP, and 4.2 × 10^- 6 for SO₂, with standard deviations of 8.15 × 10^- 6 and 9.16 × 10^- 6, respectively. They vary over a wide range, from 10^- 7 to 10^- 5. Although the electric power generation has been the focus of much of the air pollution research in China, our results show that it has the lowest average intake fraction for a local range among the four industries, which highlights the importance of pollutant emissions from other industrial sources. Sensitivity analyses show how the intake fractions are affected by the source and pollutant characteristics, the most important parameter being the size of the domain. However, the intake fraction estimates are robust enough to be useful for evaluating the local impacts on human health of primary SO₂ and TSP emissions. An application of intake fractions is given to demonstrate how this approach provides a rapid population risk estimate if the dose-response function is linear without threshold, and hence can help in prioritizing pollution control efforts.

Observations of tropospheric column densities of NO₂ obtained from the Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) for a 3‐year period (1997, 1998, and 2000) are used to derive average seasonal variations in surface emissions of NO_x from east China (100–123°E, 20–42°N). The retrieval allows for zonal variations in the contribution of the stratosphere to the NO₂ column and removes a bias of ±10% on the seasonality of retrieved columns introduced by cloud screening. The top‐down inventory is constructed using an inversion approach with a global 3‐D chemical transport model (GEOS‐Chem) and combined subsequently with the a priori inventory to develop an a posteriori inventory. The contribution of background NO₂ arising from nonsurface sources (lightning) and long‐range transport of emissions originating outside of east China is accounted for in the inversion. The a posteriori estimate of overall emissions for east China, 4.66 Tg N/yr (±30% uncertainty), is 33% higher than the a priori value and is shown to improve agreement with surface measurements of nitrate wet deposition and concentrations of NO_y observed in China. On the basis of multiple constraints on the spatial and seasonal variations of combustion and microbial processes, the a posteriori inventory is partitioned among emissions from biomass burning, fuel combustion, and microbial activity (or soil emissions). Emission of NO_x from biomass burning in east China is estimated as 0.08 TgN/yr ± 50% in the a posteriori inventory, increased by about a factor of 2 from the a priori estimate. The resulting a posteriori inventory for fuel combustion (3.72 TgN/yr ± 32%) is about 15% higher than the a priori and exhibits a distinct maximum in winter, in contrast to the weak seasonality indicated in the a priori inventory. The a posteriori value for the microbial source of NO_x (0.85 TgN/yr ± 40%) is about a factor of 3 higher than the a priori value, amounting to 23% of combustion sources for east China and significantly higher than a priori value of 7%. The microbial source is unimportant in winter. It peaks in summer, accounting for as much as 43% of the combustion source for that season, and is significant also in spring and fall. This seasonality is attributed to the timing of fertilizer application and to the influence of seasonally variable environmental factors including temperature and precipitation.

Large intra-season differences in mixing ratios of
CO and O3 were detected at Miyun, a rural site north of Beijing,
in summer 2006. Despite an increase in mean daytime
mixing ratio of CO from 500 ppbv in June to 700 ppbv in
July, mean daytime O3 dropped from 67 ppbv in June to 50
ppbv in July and August. The observed changes in CO and
O3 are attributed to the influence of the summer monsoonal
circulation that develops over the North China Plain in July.
Photochemical production of O3 is reduced as a consequence
of increased cloudiness during July and August, as indicated
by the strong negative correlation observed between O3 and
satellite observations of cloud optical depth, with cloudiness
having little effect on CO. The analysis suggests a strategy
for emission controls that could be implemented in an economically
efficient manner to minimize the frequency of high
levels of O3 during summer in Beijing.

The People's Republic of China is experiencing severe air pollution with very serious public health and economic consequences. Over the past decade, the Chinese government has sought to utilize bureaucratic, political, legal and educational vehicles to address these problems. This paper examines the ways in which those policy measures have been communicated to, understood by, and acted upon by the citizenry, drawing in important part on household and epidemiological surveys conducted in Anhui. Our study suggests that the central government's message has yet to be absorbed to the degree intended and then considers both why this has been the case and how the effectiveness of policy mechanisms might be enhanced.

Based on the application of a Consumer Lifestyle Approach (CLA), this paper quantifies the direct and indirect impact of lifestyle of urban and rural residents on China's energy use and the related CO₂ emissions during the period 1999–2002. The results show that approximately 26 per cent of total energy consumption and 30 per cent of CO₂ emission every year are a consequence of residents’ lifestyles, and the economic activities to support these demands. For urban residents the indirect impact on energy consumption is 2.44 times greater than the direct impact. Residence; home energy use; food; and education, cultural and recreation services are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. For rural residents, the direct impact on energy consumption is 1.86 times that of the indirect, and home energy use; food; education, and cultural recreation services; and personal travel are the most energy-intensive and carbon-emission-intensive activities. This paper provides quantitative evidence for energy conservation and environmental protection focused policies. China's security for energy supply is singled out as a serious issue for government policy-makers, and we suggest that government should harmonize the relationships between stakeholders to determine rational strategies.

An interdisciplinary, quantitative assessment of the health and economic costs of air pollution in China, and of market-based policies to build environmental protection into economic development.

A fascinating and long-overdue examination of the political, economic, and human rights issues impacting U.S. policy toward China.

China will achieve a position of paramount importance in the world economy and the global political order in years to come; yet, the United States holds to no consistent policy with regard to this rising superpower. In the ideological void left by the end of the cold war, media images and expediency seem more likely to guide U.S. actions toward China than any clearly stated agenda.

At this critical point in the history of U.S.-China relations, Living with China offers an essential historical assessment composed by leading scholars and political analysts. From Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Tibet and the legacy of Tiananmen Square to trade, markets, and commercial diplomacy, these compelling essays address the complex web of issues that will shape future relations with China. This book offers important facts and insights for anyone interested in this most important and thorny of foreign policy issues.

Demands for electricity and energy to supply heat are expected to expand by 71% and 47%, respectively, for Beijing in 2020 relative to 2009. If the additional electricity and heat are supplied solely by coal as is the current situation, annual emissions of CO2 may be expected to increase by 59.6% or 99 million tons over this interval. Assessed against this business as usual (BAU) background, the present study indicates that significant reductions in emissions could be realized using wind-generated electricity to provide a source of heat, employed either with heat pumps or with electric thermal storage (ETS) devices. Relative to BAU, reductions in CO2 with heat pumps assuming 20% wind penetration could be as large as 48.5% and could be obtained at a cost for abatement of as little as $15.6 per ton of avoided CO2. Even greater reductions, 64.5%, could be realized at a wind penetration level of 40% but at a higher cost, $29.4 per ton. Costs for reduction of CO2 using ETS systems are significantly higher, reflecting the relatively low efficiency for conversion of coal to power to heat.

An interdisciplinary, quantitative assessment of the health and economic costs of air pollution in China, and of market-based policies to build environmental protection into economic development.

More than 220 Tg N are processed annually through the global agriculture/animal/human food chain. It is suggested that aerobic denitrification, reduction of nitrite formed in the first stage of nitrification, is an important source not only of global N₂O but also of NO_x. A simple top‐down method indicates a globally averaged yield of 2% for N₂O emitted as a consequence of human disturbances to the global nitrogen cycle. This yield can account not only for the contemporary budget of atmospheric N₂O but also for trends observed over the past 1000 years. The associated microbial source of NO_x is estimated assuming a NO_x/N₂O ratio of 3, consistent with results from a variety of laboratory and field studies. This source is significant, particularly for large developing countries such as China and India for which its contribution is comparable to that from fossil fuel.

In this study we use Divisia index approach to identify key factors affecting CO₂ emission changes of industrial sectors in Taiwan. The changes of CO₂ emission are decomposed into emission coefficient, energy intensity, industrial structure and economic growth. Furthermore, comparisons with USA, Japan, Germany, the Netherlands and South Korea are made to have a better understanding of emission tendency in these countries and to help formulate our CO₂ reduction strategies for responding to the international calls for CO₂ cuts. The results show that economic growth and high energy intensity were two key factors for the rapid increase of industrial CO₂ emission in Taiwan, while adjustment of industrial structure was the main component for the decrease. Although economic development is important, Taiwan must keep pace with the international trends for CO₂ reduction. Among the most important strategies are continuous efforts to improve energy intensity, fuel mix toward lower carbon, setting targets for industrial CO₂ cuts, and advancing green technology through technology transfer. Also, the clean development mechanism (CDM) is expected to play an important role in the future.

An interdisciplinary, quantitative assessment of the health and economic costs of air pollution in China, and of market-based policies to build environmental protection into economic development.

This analysis seeks to evaluate the influence of emission source location on population exposure in China to fine particles and sulfur dioxide. We use the concept of intake fraction, defined as the fraction of material or its precursor released from a source that is eventually inhaled or ingested by a population. We select 29 power-plant sites throughout China and estimate annual average intake fractions at each site, using identical source characteristics to isolate the influence of geographic location. In addition, we develop regression models to interpret the intake fraction values and allow for extrapolation to other sites. To model the concentration increase due to emissions from selected power plants, we used a detailed long-range atmospheric dispersion model, CALPUFF. Primary fine particles have the highest average intake fraction (1 × 10^− 5), followed by sulfur dioxide (5 × 10^− 6), sulfate from sulfur dioxide (4 × 10^− 6), and nitrate from nitrogen oxides (4 × 10^− 6). For all pollutants, the intake fractions span approximately an order of magnitude across sites. In the regression analysis, the independent variables are meteorological proxies (such as climate region and precipitation) and population at various distances from the source. We find that population terms can explain a substantial percentage of variability in the intake fraction for all pollutants (R² between 0.86 and 0.95 across pollutants), with a significant modifying influence of meteorological regime. Near-source population is more important for primary coarse particles while population at medium to long distance is more important for primary fine particles and secondary particles. A significant portion of intake fraction (especially for secondary particles and primary fine particles) occurs beyond 500 km of the source, emphasizing the need for detailed long-range dispersion modeling. These findings demonstrate that intake fractions for power plants in China can be estimated with reasonable precision and summarized using simple regression models. The results should be useful for informing future decisions about power-plant locations and controls.