@article {1162407,
	title = {China{\textquoteright}s CO2 peak before 2030 implied from diverse characteristics and growth of cities},
	journal = {Nature Sustainability},
	volume = {2},
	year = {2019},
	note = {Wang et al. is the <a data-url="https://www.nature.com/natsustain/volumes/2/issues/8" href="https://www.nature.com/natsustain/volumes/2/issues/8" title="Cover of Nature Sustainability">cover article of this issue of <em>Nature Sustainability</em></a>.},
	pages = {748{\textendash}754},
	abstract = {China pledges to peak CO<sub>2</sub>\&nbsp;emissions by 2030 or sooner under the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2 {\textdegree}C or less by the end of the century. By examining CO<sub>2</sub>\&nbsp;emissions from 50 Chinese cities over the period 2000{\textendash}2016, we found a close relationship between per capita emissions and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) for individual cities, following the environmental Kuznets curve, despite diverse trajectories for CO<sub>2</sub>\&nbsp;emissions across the cities. Results show that carbon emissions peak for most cities at a per capita GDP (in 2011 purchasing power parity) of around US$21,000 (80\% confidence interval: US$19,000 to 22,000). Applying a Monte Carlo approach to simulate the peak of per capita emissions using a Kuznets function based on China{\textquoteright}s historical emissions, we project that emissions for China should peak at 13{\textendash}16 GtCO<sub>2</sub> yr<sup>-1</sup>\&nbsp;between 2021 and 2025, approximately 5{\textendash}10 yr ahead of the current Paris target of 2030. We show that the challenges faced by individual types of Chinese cities in realizing low-carbon development differ significantly depending on economic structure, urban form and geographical location.},
	url = {https://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-019-0339-6},
	author = {Wang, Haikun and Lu, Xi and Deng, Yu and Yaoguang Sun and Nielsen, Chris P. and Liu,Yifan and Ge Zhu and Maoliang Bu and Bi, Jun and McElroy, Michael B.}
}
