Economy and Policy

beijing air pollution

《财富》杂志刊登何博士和Nielsen总监有关中国空气污染困境的专栏文章

January 10, 2017

哈佛大学中国项目执行总监Chris Nielsen先生与项目经济学家何文胜博士在《财富》杂志(包括《财富》杂志中文版)发表专栏文章,阐述了中国处于红色警报级别的空气污染情况之所以如此难以遏制,其背后被低估了的原因是什么。这些因素各种各样,与大气化学、气象、经济、政治等方面都有关。... Read more about 《财富》杂志刊登何博士和Nielsen总监有关中国空气污染困境的专栏文章

McElroy headshot

McElroy教授接受《哈佛志》采访就中美新气候联合声明发表看法

September 25, 2015

哈佛大学中国项目主席Mike McElroy教授就中国最近的气候承诺接受《哈佛志》采访,就最新的中美公告将会如何影响联合国巴黎气候对话,以及这是否会促使美国官员对制订一个全国范围内的遏制碳排放计划持更开放态度等话题发表看法。... Read more about McElroy教授接受《哈佛志》采访就中美新气候联合声明发表看法

美国前副总统阿尔·戈尔就中美两国的气候这一主题发表公开演讲

美国前副总统阿尔·戈尔就中美两国的气候这一主题发表公开演讲

April 8, 2016

2016年4月7日,美国前副总统阿尔·戈尔在哈佛大学桑德斯剧院作公开演讲,作为由哈佛环球学院赞助的哈佛大学中国项目“中国2030年/2050年规划”的首场公开讲座,现场观众座无虚席。在讲座中,戈尔先生对低碳能源发展的进程以及中美两国在这一进程中所发挥的作用表示乐观。
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《经济学人》、《中国日报》报道哈佛大学中国项目的研究;《纽约时报》就同一主题刊登专栏文章

March 14, 2014

《中国日报》对哈佛大学中国项目的碳定价和空气污染研究进行报道;《经济学人》杂志引述我们项目专著《中国更晴朗的天空》(Clearer Skies Over China) 中关于中国二氧化硫排放控制的有效性的研究结论,同时项目研究人员Chris Nielsen先生与何文胜博士也在《纽约时报》就同一主题撰写专栏文章。
... Read more about 《经济学人》、《中国日报》报道哈佛大学中国项目的研究;《纽约时报》就同一主题刊登专栏文章

《中国日报》引述Jorgenson教授和Nielsen总监关于碳定价的观点

《中国日报》引述Jorgenson教授和Nielsen总监关于碳定价的观点

September 30, 2016

《中国日报》美国版援引Dale JORGENSON教授和哈佛大学中国项目执行总监Chris Nielsen先生关于中国计划实施主要针对重污染行业的全国排污权交易的观点;关于税收对中国在其他经济领域实现碳定价目标的潜在作用,《中国日报》也引述了二位的观点。... Read more about 《中国日报》引述Jorgenson教授和Nielsen总监关于碳定价的观点

2016 May 30

"Carbon Taxes in China's Future: Role and Feasibility"

Mon - Tue, May 30 to May 31, 8:30am - 2:00pm

Location: 

Beijing, China

A closed-door interdisciplinary symposium sponsored by:

  • The Harvard China Project and Harvard Global Institute
  • The Energy Foundation China and the Innovative Green Development Program

Interviews about the symposium of the event chair, Prof. Dale Jorgenson, and Project Executive Director, Chris Nielsen, are reported in Caixin and the Harvard Gazette

 

carbon_tax_symposium

Jing Cao, Richard Garbaccio, and Mun S Ho. 2009. “China's 11th Five-Year Plan and the environment: Reducing SO2 emissions.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3, 2, Pp. 189-208. Publisher's VersionAbstract
China's rapid economic growth has been accompanied by a high level of environmental degradation. One of the major sources of health and ecosystem damages is sulfur dioxide (SO2). Reducing SO2 emissions is a priority of China's environmental authorities, and the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006–2010) includes the target of reducing total SO2 emissions by 10 percent from the 2005 level. Given the rapid increase in SO2 emissions that is expected to occur in absence of intervention, attaining this target will require a significant effort. This article examines the two major policy measures the government is taking to achieve the SO2 target: a shutdown of many small, inefficient power plants and the installation of desulfurization equipment on existing and new coal-fired plants. We present results from a joint U.S.–China study that we participated in, which estimated the costs and benefits of these policies. We then estimate the economy-wide impacts of the two policies using a multisector model of the Chinese economy. We find that in the aggregate, the economic benefits of the shutdown of the small power plants are large enough to offset the costs of the desulfurization equipment, even without considering the substantial environmental benefits from the reduction of emissions of SO2 and other pollutants.
Jing Cao, Mun S Ho, and Dale W Jorgenson. 2009. “The local and global benefits of green tax policies in China.” Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 3, 2, Pp. 231-250. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This article describes a multidisciplinary study of market-based policies for controlling air pollution in China. While previous studies have examined the costs and benefits of pollution control separately, this approach determines them together using an economy–environment model for China. We employ air dispersion simulations and population maps to calculate health damages due to air pollution. This provides estimates of incremental damages for industry output and fuel use. Based on these marginal damages, we simulate the effect of “green taxes” on the economy and show that the environmental benefits exceed the aggregate costs, ignoring adjustment costs for individual sectors.
Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals
2013. Clearer Skies Over China: Reconciling Air Pollution, Climate, and Economic Goals. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Publisher's VersionAbstract

A groundbreaking U.S.–Chinese inquiry into the effects of recent air pollution controls and prospective carbon taxes on China's economy and environment.

China's carbon dioxide emissions now outstrip those of other countries and its domestic air quality is severely degraded, especially in urban areas. Its sheer size and its growing, fossil-fuel-powered economy mean that China's economic and environmental policy choices will have an outsized effect on the global environmental future. Over the last decade, China has pursued policies that target both fossil fuel use and atmospheric emissions, but these efforts have been substantially overwhelmed by the country's increasing energy demands. With a billion citizens still living on less than $4,000 per year, China's energy and environmental policies must be reconciled with the goals of maintaining economic growth and raising living standards.

This book, a U.S.–Chinese collaboration of experts from Harvard and Tsinghua University, offers a groundbreaking integrated analysis of China's economy, emissions, air quality, public health, and agriculture. It first offers essential scientific context and accessible summaries of the book's policy findings; it then provides the underlying scientific and economic research. These studies suggest that China's recent sulfur controls achieved enormous environmental health benefits at unexpectedly low costs. They also indicate that judicious implementation of carbon taxes could reduce not only China's carbon emissions but also its air pollution more comprehensively than current single-pollutant policies, all at little cost to economic growth.

Jintai Lin and Michael B. McElroy. 2011. “Detection from space of a reduction in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides during the Chinese economic downturn.” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 11, Pp. 8171-8188. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Rapid economic and industrial development in
China and relatively weak emission controls have resulted in
significant increases in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx)
in recent years, with the exception of late 2008 to mid 2009
when the economic downturn led to emission reductions detectable
from space. Here vertical column densities (VCDs)
of tropospheric NO2 retrieved from satellite observations by
SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI (both by KNMI and by
NASA) are used to evaluate changes in emissions of NOx
from October 2004 to February 2010 identifying impacts of
the economic downturn. Data over polluted regions of Northern
East China suggest an increase of 27–33% in 12-month
mean VCD of NO2 prior to the downturn, consistent with an
increase of 49% in thermal power generation (TPG) reflecting
the economic growth. More detailed analysis is used to
quantify changes in emissions of NOx in January over the
period 2005–2010 when the effect of the downturn was most
evident. The GEOS-Chem model is employed to evaluate
the effect of changes in chemistry and meteorology on VCD
of NO2. This analysis indicates that emissions decreased by
20% from January 2008 to January 2009, close to the reduction
of 18% in TPG that occurred over the same interval. A
combination of three independent approaches indicates that
the economic downturn was responsible for a reduction in
emissions by 9–11% in January 2009 with an additional decrease
of 10%attributed to the slow-down in industrial activity
associated with the coincident celebration of the Chinese
New Year; errors in the estimate are most likely less than
3.4 %.
Jing Cao, Mun S Ho, Dale W Jorgenson, Rouen Ren, Linlin Sun, and Ximing Yue. 2009. “Industrial and aggregate measures of productivity growth in China, 1982-2000.” Review of Income Wealth , 55, s1, Pp. 485-513. Publisher's VersionAbstract
We estimate productivity growth for 33 industries covering the entire Chinese economy using a time series of input–output tables covering 1982–2000. Capital input is measured using detailed investment data by asset and labor input uses demographic information from household surveys. We find a wide range of productivity performance at the industry level. We then show how these industry growth accounts may be consistently aggregated to deliver a decomposition of aggregate GDP growth. For the 1982–2000 period aggregate TFP growth was 2.5 percent per year; decelerating from a rapid rate in the early 1980s to negative growth during 1994–2000. The main source of growth during the 1982–2000 period was capital accumulation, with a small negative contribution from the reallocation of factors across industries.

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