可再生能源、低碳电力与并网

由Michael McELROY教授(哈佛大学中国项目主席)、鲁玺教授(清华大学环境学院)和陈新宇博士后研究员(哈佛大学中国项目)领衔，项目研究团队对中国可再生能源与低碳电力的现状及前景进行了调查研究，其中包括间歇性可再生能源接入以煤炭为主要能源的电力系统带来的难点挑战及其对应的解决策略。

本项研究一方面运用气象数据和分析地理条件限制实现风力发电潜力的资源评估，另一方面探索能源存储及其他有助于间歇性可再生能源并网的方法策略，因而对于深入理解电力系统发展可再生能源并网对降低中国空气污染物和二氧化碳排放的作用具有极大的意义。

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声明：此处援引的部分论文出自美国国家科学基金会(NSF)ATM-1019134号或ATM-0635548号基金赞助项目(被引用论文中已注明)。这些论文中表达的任何观点、结论或建议均为作者本人观点，不代表美国国家科学基金会(NSF)的立场。

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Yang Zhao, Ziyue Jiang, Xinyu Chen, Peng Liu, Tianduo Peng, and Zhan Shu. 2023. “Toward environmental sustainability: data-driven analysis of energy use patterns and load profiles for urban electric vehicle fleets.” Energy, 285, 15 Dec 2023, Pp. 129465. Publisher's Version Abstract

The scale-up of urban electric vehicle (EV) fleets, driven by environmental benefits, is resulting in surging aggregate energy demands that may reshape a city's power supply. This paper establishes an integrated data-driven assessment model for investigating the energy use (kWh) patterns and charging load (kW) profiles of urban-scale EV fleets. To this end, urban EV operating and operational datasets are linked with climate data and vehicle specifications. Four vehicle fleet types are distinguished: private, taxi, rental, and business fleets. Statistical models regarding distribution analysis, spectrum analysis, and identical distribution tests are employed to analyze the patterns of driving distances, energy consumption, and shares of active charging EVs. The minute-level changes in charging EV numbers and aggregate charging power are examined to reflect the grid load impact. The results show that private light-duty EVs in Beijing consume an average of 9.1 kWh/day, with more charging activities on Fridays. The primary load peaks of light-duty EVs in Beijing usually occur between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m., attributable chiefly to the private fleet's midnight peak load estimated at 28 % of the total daily charging private EV count multiplied by 5.5 kW/EV. Secondary peaks occur between 8 a.m. and 10 a.m. on weekdays for private fleets, and at 4 p.m. for public fleets. Our work can be extensively used for analyses on transport emissions, urban power supply, infrastructure build-ups, and policymaking.

Xi Yang, Chris P. Nielsen, Shaojie Song, and Michael B. McElroy. 2022. “Breaking the “hard-to-abate” bottleneck in China’s path to carbon neutrality with clean hydrogen.” Nature Energy. Publisher's Version Abstract

Countries such as China are facing a bottleneck in their paths to carbon neutrality: abating emissions in heavy industries and heavy-duty transport. There are few in-depth studies of the prospective role for clean hydrogen in these ‘hard-to-abate’ (HTA) sectors. Here we carry out an integrated dynamic least-cost modelling analysis. Results show that, first, clean hydrogen can be both a major energy carrier and feedstock that can significantly reduce carbon emissions of heavy industry. It can also fuel up to 50% of China’s heavy-duty truck and bus fleets by 2060 and significant shares of shipping. Second, a realistic clean hydrogen scenario that reaches 65.7 Mt of production in 2060 could avoid US$1.72 trillion of new investment compared with a no-hydrogen scenario. This study provides evidence of the value of clean hydrogen in HTA sectors for China and countries facing similar challenges in reducing emissions to achieve net-zero goals.

Peter Sherman, Haiyang Lin, and Michael B. McElroy. 2022. “Projected global demand for air conditioning associated with extreme heat and implications for electricity grids in poorer countries.” Energy and Buildings. Publisher's Version Abstract

Human-induced climate change will increase surface temperatures globally over the next several decades. Climate models project that global mean surface temperature could increase by over 2˚C by 2050 relative to the preindustrial period, with even greater changes at the regional level. These temperature changes have clear and pertinent implications for extremes, and consequentially, heat-induced health issues for people living in particularly hot climates. Here, we study future projections in the demand for AC globally in the 2050s associated with extreme heat events. To do this, we employ an ensemble of CMIP6 models under high and low emissions scenarios. We find that the increasing frequency of extreme temperatures will cause a significant portion of the global population to be exposed to conditions that require cooling. This issue will be especially pervasive in poor countries such as India and Indonesia, which at present lack the AC units required to handle rapidly growing populations and increased frequencies of extreme temperatures. The electricity needed for cooling in these countries could reach as high as 75% of the current total annual electricity demand, which could place serious strain on the electricity grid infrastructure during peak cooling hours. We conclude that demand for cooling in the future will pose a significant challenge for poorer countries whose people will require AC units to handle extreme temperatures. In some countries, the grid infrastructure is insufficient at present to meet projected AC demands, and this need must be considered in future power systems planning.

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可再生能源、低碳电力与并网

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